In the period 2011-2020, Vietnam sets an average export growth rate of about 11-12% / year, of which, in the 2016-2020 period, it strives to achieve an average growth rate of 11% / year. and maintain the growth rate of about 10% in the period of 2021-2030.

Particularly in 2019, the export turnover target is set at about 258 billion USD, an increase of 8% compared to 2017. However, in the new context, in addition to opportunities, Vietnam’s export of goods also has to face. face with many challenges, affecting the completion of the goals set out in the Goods Import and Export Strategy for the period 2011-2020, with a vision to 2030.

Current situation of merchandise export

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, 2011-2018 was a period of outstanding growth in Vietnam’s export and import turnover; in which, export growth exceeded the set target, contributing significantly to promoting economic growth. Exports in eight years increased by 2.51 times (from 96.91 billion USD in 2011 to 243.48 billion USD in 2018). Vietnam has rapidly improved its position on the world import-export map.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), if in 2007, Vietnam ranked 50, by 2017, it rose to 27th in terms of exports. With the impressive results of exports and imports in 2018, Vietnam’s export and import rankings continued to improve on the rankings, maintaining its position among countries with a large total import-export turnover. Best.

In terms of the size of export markets, if in 2011, Vietnam had only 24 export markets, reaching a turnover of over 1 billion USD (including 3 markets over 10 billion USD), by 2018, there were 31 markets. export markets achieve a turnover of over 1 billion USD (in which, 4 markets have a turnover of over 10 billion USD, 7 markets over 5 billion USD).
In the period 2011-2018, many Vietnamese businesses continued to promote the exploitation of traditional markets and expand the search and development of many new markets. Up to now, Vietnamese goods are present in over 200 countries and territories. Export turnover to important markets of Vietnam including the United States, the European Union (EU), Southeast Asian countries, Japan and South Korea all grew high in the period 2011-2018 (Table 2 ). In which, China and South Korea are the two markets with the highest average growth rate, with growth rates of 21.7% and 21.5% respectively.

In particular, 2018 was the year that achieved many records for merchandise export. Data of the General Department of Customs show that the total value of imports and exports of the country reached 480.17 billion USD, an increase of more than 52 billion USD compared to the results of 2017. In which, exports are set up. new records with turnover reaching nearly 243.5 billion USD, up 13.2% compared to 2017, far exceeding the target set by the National Assembly and the Government (the target assigned by the National Assembly increases by 7-8%; targets assigned by the Government increase 8-10%). In terms of absolute value, exports in 2018 increased by 28.36 billion USD over the previous year. The largest group of export products of our country in 2018 are phones and accessories with a recorded value of up to 49.1 billion USD, accounting for 1/5 of the total export value.

2018 is also the third consecutive year of Vietnam’s trade surplus, with a record surplus of nearly $ 6.8 billion (much higher than 2016 at $ 1.78 billion and 2017 at 2.11 billion. USD). In 2018, Vietnam had a trade balance surplus with 150 countries and territories and a deficit with 85 countries and territories. Regarding maintaining trade surplus, Vietnam has had a trade surplus in the 6 years since 2012, with only 2015 having a trade deficit. This result has contributed to balance of payments and stabilize macroeconomic indicators of the economy.

Another bright spot in Vietnam’s export activities over the past time is that enterprises are increasingly actively participating in market search, actively integrating, thereby affirming the right policy in opening up international economic integration. of the Party and State. According to the General Department of Customs, in 2018, there were 85.6 thousand enterprises having import and export activities, while in 2017 there were only 79.8 thousand enterprises. It is estimated that by 2020, Vietnam will have 100,000 enterprises importing and exporting goods …

Not only actively participate in foreign trade activities, businesses also make better use of opportunities from integration. Accordingly, in all markets that Vietnam has signed a free trade agreement (FTA) have recorded outstanding growth, export market shares in key markets are confirmed. Export growth in many markets, reaching double digits such as: Export to China reached 41.2 billion USD, up 16.6% compared to 2017; Export to ASEAN market reached 24.74 billion USD, up 13.9%; Export to Japan was 18.85 billion USD, up by 11.8%, and to South Korea was 18.2 billion USD, up 22.8%.

Many export products have taken advantage of opportunities from tariff reduction in FTA markets to grow. After the AANZFTA Agreement came into effect, with the import tax rate of 0%, cashew exports to Australia grew on average 12.9% / year; Aquatic products reached 6.9% / year; Pepper exported to Japan grew at 12.8% / year; Coffee reached 8.0% / year after the VJFTA Agreement took effect; or pepper exports to India grew at 14.3% / year, seafood reached 12.3% per year after the AIFTA took effect; After the Vietnam – EAEU Agreement took effect, cashew nuts exported to the Russian Federation increased 59.6%, vegetables and fruits increased 19.9%, textiles increased 53.5% …

Entering 2019, in the face of increasingly tense US-China trade war, Vietnam’s export performance is relatively positive. The socio-economic report announced by the General Statistics Office, for the first 5 months of 2019, Vietnam’s export turnover was estimated at 100.74 billion USD, up 6.7% over the same period last year. 2018, of which, the domestic economic sector reached 30.33 billion USD, up 11.6%, accounting for 30.1% of the total export turnover; foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached 70.41 billion USD, up 4.7%, accounting for 69.9% (proportion decreased by 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year).

In 5 months, there were 19 items with export value of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 84.4% of total export turnover, of which: Phones and components with the largest export value reached 19.9 billion USD. accounting for 19.7% of total export turnover, up 3% over the same period last year; electronics, computers and components reached 12.3 billion USD, up 11.1%; textiles and garments reached 12.1 billion USD, up 10.3%; footwear reached 7.1 billion USD, up 14.3% …

Regarding the export market, in the first 5 months of 2019, the United States was Vietnam’s largest export market with a turnover of 22.6 billion USD, up 28% over the same period last year, of which electricity phone and spare parts by 109.2%; electronics, computers and components rose 58.4%; textiles and garments rose 9.8%. Followed by EU market reached 17.3 billion USD, up 1.9%, of which machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts increased by 21.1%; footwear by 7.1%; electronics, computers and components rose 3.2%.

China reached 13.4 billion USD, down by 2.6%, of which seafood decreased by 11.8%; phones and accessories down 56.6%; rice decreased 78.7%. ASEAN market reached 10.6 billion USD, up 5.2%, of which textiles and garments increased 31.6%; iron and steel increased by 19.4%; machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts increased by 12.8% … This is quite an impressive result in the context of the increasingly escalating US-China trade war, along with the moves between the US and India. Vietnam may achieve the export target set for the whole year 2019.

Positive changes in export activities

With the increasing openness and international economic integration, in the context of complicated international and regional situations, unpredictable, especially the developments of the US-China trade war , the trend of trade protectionism has increased … but Vietnam’s export activities still have positive changes. Specifically:

First, the structure of exports continued to improve in a positive direction, with the scale of export products continuing to expand.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in 2018, the structure of exports will continue to ensure the orientation set out in the Goods Import and Export Strategy for the period 2011-2020, with a vision to 2030. Accounting for the highest proportion in The structure of import and export goods is still the industrial goods group with the proportion of 82.8% (up 1.7% compared to 2017), followed by the group of agricultural and aquatic products accounting for 10.9% (down 1 , 2% compared to 2017) and the group of fuels and minerals only accounted for 1.9% of the total export turnover (down 0.3% compared to 2017).

The number of items with an export turnover of 1 billion USD or more has increased over the years, accounting for a large proportion of the country’s total export turnover. If in 2011, there were 21 items with an export turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 81% of the total export turnover, by 2018 there were 29 items with an export turnover of over 1 billion USD (of which, the agricultural group seafood and aquatic products contribute 6 items, industrial goods contribute 21 items and fuel and minerals contribute 2 items).

Secondly, the export market has been expanded, Vietnam’s export goods have reached most of the world markets. In all markets where Vietnam has a free trade agreement (FTA), good growth has been recorded. Export growth in many markets reached double digits, such as exports to China reached 41.2 billion USD, up 16.6% compared to 2017; export to ASEAN market reached 24.74 billion USD, up 13.9%; exports to Japan reached 18.85 billion USD, up 11.8%; exports to South Korea reached 18.2 billion USD, up 22.8% …

Third, joining FTAs ​​in general and CPTPP in particular has a positive impact on improving competitiveness and developing export markets.

Statistics show that, as of May 2019, Vietnam had commercial relations with 55 trading partners through the signing of 13 FTAs ​​and is negotiating three other FTAs. Currently, Vietnamese enterprises, when exporting goods to the markets of FTA member countries, have the opportunity to enjoy benefits. For example, for the CPTPP, Vietnamese exporting enterprises enjoy high commitments to cut tariffs, specifically: For Australia, over 93% of tariff lines (equivalent to 95.8% of export turnover of Vietnam to this market); Canada’s tariff reduction commitments amounted to 94.9% of tariff lines (equivalent to 77.9% of imports from Vietnam); With Japan, the commitment to cut taxes is much better than in the bilateral FTA between the two countries (such as a commitment to immediately abolish 86% of tariff lines, equivalent to 93.6% of Vietnam’s exports to Japan and nearly 90% of tariff lines after 5 years) …

CPTPP opens up opportunities for a number of commodity groups to develop with very “open” commitments, creating favorable conditions for exports in both agricultural, forestry and fishery products and industrial products. The industries expected to have large growth will be food, beverages, tobacco, textiles, chemicals, plastic products and leather goods, transportation equipment, machinery and other equipment. In addition, CPTPP facilitates the restructuring of export and import markets, because currently, Vietnam’s import and export activities are mainly with the Asia region (accounting for about 80% of import turnover and 50 % exports). The new FTAs ​​will help businesses penetrate and exploit new markets, markets that still have many potentials for Vietnamese exports.

The challenge posed

First, the competition in exports is growing.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade has issued a series of warnings about improving the quality of Vietnamese exports to join the global value chain. Many of Vietnam’s key export products, including rice, are currently of very low value and are in danger of losing their export licenses. In particular, the competitive pressure is increasing when the export of agricultural and aquatic products has encountered many difficulties, including selling prices in the first months of 2019.

Rice exports are forecast to face great competition as demand for imports decreases in some major markets including Indonesia, Bangladesh and China. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s main competitor in the European and US markets has a much higher price advantage, for example, China occupies a large share of the consumer goods industry in the United States. with fierce competition on price …

Second, the ability to enter new markets

In fact, the level of market diversification of some of Vietnam’s agricultural and fishery products is not high, particularly depending on Asia (accounting for 54%), especially especially China. Notably, some products depend on one market (cassava, rubber, dragon fruit…). Exported agricultural and aquatic products still face many difficulties in accessing markets with high requirements on food quality and safety.

Even China – Vietnam’s largest fruit and vegetable export market with the export turnover of fruits and vegetables in 2018 reached US $ 2.78 billion, accounting for over 70% of the export proportion. For this product of Vietnam, the export of agricultural products to this market is still unsustainable. It also depends quite a lot on sugar quota, small scale. China is no longer an easy market, and the requirements of consumers for imported fruits and vegetables in this market are increasingly strict. In particular, China’s policy has many changes. From January 1, 2019, fruits and vegetables exported to this market must have clear traceability and phytosanitary certificates.

Third, unpredictable fluctuations in the global trade market.

The US-China trade war broke out in July 2018 with the US imposing import duties on $ 34 billion of Chinese goods. Through many rounds, the US continued to impose tariffs on a total of 250 billion USD of Chinese goods and China retaliated with 110 billion USD. By early May 2019, the US continued to announce a “shock” when it raised tariffs of $ 200 billion on Chinese goods, because it said Beijing had changed its commitments.

After that, China retaliated by raising taxes with most of the 60 billion USD taxable group of US goods since 2018. According to Bui Nguyen Khoa (2019), when the trade war escalated, trade flows were disrupted. segment, affecting the driving force of global economic growth. With a large open economy like Vietnam, the short-term benefits of a number of benefiting industries are unlikely to offset the long-term impact.

With forecasts of global growth, market size and decreasing demand for goods, our country’s import and export activities will be affected. Recently, the Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting (Ministry of Planning and Investment) estimated that the US-China trade war will reduce Vietnam’s GDP by 0.09% in 2019 and peak. drop 0.12% in 2020-2021. However, this estimate is made in mid-2018, with the US scenario imposing a 25% tax on US $ 34 billion of goods imported from China, while the size of the current trade occupation has increased compared to before. At that time, along with the trend of increased trade protectionism, Vietnam’s export activities will surely face many bigger challenges.

Fourth, the export support activities have not yet brought into full play.

In recent years, although there have been many efforts, trade promotion activities have not been uniform and synchronous from production to marketing and market penetration. The market access to find new customers and introduce products through trade promotion activities is still limited. This situation makes the export support activities not bring into full play and not as expected.

Fifth, the challenge from trade remedies of importing countries.

Although, Vietnam has been very active, proactively handling effectively issues in trade disputes, dealing with trade remedies, and overcoming trade barriers of import markets. However, the world situation is experiencing very complicated and unpredictable developments. Developed countries are increasingly taking measures to limit trade and protect domestic production.

According to statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, by the end of 2018, there were 144 trade defense cases initiated by foreign countries, applied to Vietnamese exports (of which, in 2018, there were 19 cases of new work has been initiated). Currently, the United States is still the largest trade defense investigation country with Vietnam’s exports (27 cases), followed by Turkey (21 cases), India (17 cases). and EU (14 cases).

Out of 144 cases of trade defense investigation, there were 81 anti-dumping cases, 30 self-defense cases related to Vietnamese goods, 14 cases of subsidies and 19 cases of tax evasion. Thus, if only 13 trade defense cases were initiated in 2017, then in 2018 there would be 19 cases (including 6 anti-dumping cases, 7 self-defense cases, 4 cases of self-defense). anti-subsidy and 2 cases of tax evasion), approximately 50% increase.

In addition to trade remedies, many countries also tend to rigorously increase the protection of domestic production. For example: China continuously strictly complied with regulations and tightened the import of agricultural products. In the coming time, Vietnam’s export enterprises will continue to face difficulties in the trend of protectionism and high standards in import markets such as: The technical regulations are quite strict for the purpose of protection. human health, environmental protection, sustainable development; policy of high protection for domestic agricultural production in many countries; new regulations on quarantine testing and strict inspection of food hygiene and safety, strict and complex requirements on packaging, symbols, language on the package …

Sixth, the capacity of Vietnamese enterprises to participate in international trade is limited.

Although there are many efforts, but due to financial ability, Vietnamese enterprises have little conditions to participate in specialized fairs and exhibitions in developed countries in Europe and America. Surveying and building a market access strategy requires investment in terms of funding, while most Vietnamese enterprises are small and medium enterprises. Moreover, in the process of surveying new markets, understanding and fully understanding the regulations of the importing countries, not all Vietnamese enterprises can actively implement it when funding is always a difficult problem. for enterprises. For example, for Canada: The Commercial Law system is relatively complex. Goods imported into Canada are subject to the provisions of Federal Law and Internal Law.

Some recommendations

In order to continue promoting export activities, to complete the goals set out in the Goods Import and Export Strategy for the period 2011-2020, with a vision to 2030, in the coming time, it is necessary to focus on the following solutions. :

First, continue to expand the export market. Expanding export markets is considered as a long-term strategy to help Vietnamese enterprises participate deeply in the regional value chain, improve export production capacity and competitiveness. At the same time, helping Vietnamese enterprises to rub with the outside world, have conditions to develop production and business activities and assert their new position in the international arena.

Second, continue to restructure export products in the direction of increasing the proportion of products with high added value. In particular, for export agricultural products: Changing from exporting raw materials to processed products, from simple processed products to processed products with high added value. For exported industrial goods: Shifting from low value added products to high value added products.

Third, improve the quality of exported products: Accelerate the development and application of a system of national standards in harmony with international standards, regional standards, and foreign standards for exported goods. import, including technical standards, food hygiene and safety standards, and environmental standards. Building the capacity of testing organizations and certification bodies, meeting international standards to serve the assessment of the conformity of national standards, international standards, regional standards, water standards and specific standards for exported goods.

Fourth, improve efficiency and innovate trade promotion methods, focus on goods with export advantages, potential markets and niche markets to open up new markets for diversification. export market. Continue to negotiate, sign and implement bilateral and multilateral trade agreements in the direction of facilitating and enhancing competitive advantages for Vietnamese exports in the world market …

Fifth, strengthening national branding, branding of export products and branding of enterprises Building a common national brand of Vietnam in export markets. Besides, encourage and support enterprises to build export products to reach national brands and build corporate brands. Complete policies to support enterprises in establishing and protecting intellectual property rights of enterprises in the domestic market and in export markets.

Sixthly, to strengthen monitoring and research on policy developments and analysis of impacts on Vietnam: In the context of increasing protectionism, especially rapid and unpredictable developments of trade disputes. Between the United States and China, regulators, industry associations and businesses need to strengthen research, update changes in trade policies, regulations of countries, especially in markets. large export; analyze the impact of these changes on Vietnam’s production and exports for appropriate adjustment and response.

Promote early warning to take necessary measures, limit the damage from trade defense lawsuits of importing countries. Disseminating, consulting and training export production enterprises on application of goods quality standards of foreign markets. Encourage and support enterprises to develop export products that have won national quality awards and international quality awards …

Cre: tapchitaichinh.vn

All these inspectors are carried out in an accurate and detailed manner by experts who are having knowledge in products and inspection techniques. The actual findings during the Inspection are marked in the INSPLUS detailed report and sent to the customer within 24 working hours for their final decision on shipment.